As the upcoming Presidential election approaches, it’s natural to wonder what it might mean for the housing market. Questions like these can easily lead to uncertainty, especially if you’re considering buying or selling a home this year.

Here’s some reassuring news: Historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. It’s important to have your questions answered so you can move forward confidently without pausing your plans.

Let’s take a look at decades of data to understand what typically happens to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during election years.

Home Sales In the lead-up to an election, there’s usually a slight slowdown in home sales, particularly from October to November. Some consumers prefer to wait before making a decision, but this slowdown is usually minor and temporary. After the election, home sales often rebound and continue to rise the following year. Data from HUD and NAR shows that in 9 out of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the year after the election, a trend consistent since the early 1990s.

Home Prices What about home prices? History tells us that election years typically do not cause a dip in home prices. In fact, home prices generally continue to rise over time, regardless of the election cycle. The latest data from NAR indicates that after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices increased the following year. The only exception was during the 2008 housing market crash, a highly unusual event. Today’s market is much more resilient, with prices moderating but not declining.

Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are another area of concern, as they affect your monthly payment if you’re financing a home. Looking at the last 11 Presidential election years, Freddie Mac data shows that mortgage rates decreased from July to November in 8 of those years. This trend appears to be continuing in 2024, with experts forecasting a slight easing of rates throughout the remainder of the year. This could be good news for your purchasing power if you’re planning to buy a home soon.

What This Means for You The bottom line? While Presidential elections do have some impact on the housing market, the effects are typically minimal. As Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant explains, the housing market during election years isn’t much different from other years. For most buyers and sellers, elections don’t significantly alter their plans.

If you’re feeling uncertain about how the election might affect your real estate decisions, remember that the market remains strong and resilient. For personalized advice and guidance during this election cycle, don’t hesitate to reach out